YTD 22-21 +17.30 (+9.3%) staked 184.11
Regular 22-17 +19.30
Parlay 0-4 -2.00
no stand-out bets so far but a few that are playable
Kansas City vs New England
- KC played fairly well in SJ though lost 1-0 despite having two Arnaud headers disallowed on set pieces, hitting the post, and Bunbury missing 3 glorious chances alone on keeper. But, that's what happens in this league when betting road teams and especially with KC who simply waste a ton of chances. Despite being the ONLY MLS TEAM with over 100 shots on goal (102) this season they've 2nd-to-last in goals scored which really highlights their futility in front of goal. Smith is creating a lot of chances for them but the forwards just aren't converting or they're marginally offsides when they do. The big reason for the bet here isn't just KC's fine current form but for New England playing 3rd match in a week in brutal heat (105 degrees will be heat index). Chicago, who are in awful form themselves, had New England on their heels all midweek match and got NE whistled for 5 yellow cards and 18 fouls (vs just 3 for Fire). I expect the speedy KC midfield to do everything in their power to make the Revs run and really feel the temperature, especially when the Revs are a team with a really short bench and playing match #6 in last 3 weeks. Revs defensively are very solid right now so I don't expect an easy game at all. It won't be a high scoring one but it will be really testy as neither team can afford to drop 3 points here. Both clubs are in a playoff dogfight sitting several points behind Toronto for last spot so it will be a match that between two teams in direct fight for playoff. I'll side with the home team who've been getting a ton of chances but are just not converting them. This year KC has put 26 more shots on goal than New England so I expect they will try to run the tired Revs ragged and eek out a home win.
KC -.25 2.5u -120
Houston vs Chicago
- Two hideous stats for Houston...1) have not beaten an MLS team since May 22 and 2) Have posted just 2 SOG in last 2 games. So, why bet them? Well, really similar reasoning to KC except for club form which is certainly not on Houston's side. 110 degrees will be the heat index for the start of this match which, like NE, will hurt a northern team playing 3rd match in a week. Also, like NE, the Fire were involved in Superliga and US Open Cup which means their schedule has been rough for the past 6 weeks playing 12th match in 54 days. The 3 big signings have brought improved play, for sure, but I don't trust the Fire a whole lot more than I trust the Dynamo. Just like with KC/NE both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to playoffs though Chicago have games in hand on the rest of the clubs. Absolutely a must-win for Houston who are in a freefall at 0-1-4 past 5 matches and winless in 4 in Houston. Injury situation is much improved with Davis, Onstad, and Cameron back in the lineup and if they press Chicago early to take advantage of the Fire's short week I expect a home win, finally. If, however, they let Chicago attack the flanks with their very speedy guys like Nyarko, Segares, Castillo, and Carr it could a very long night for the Dynamo. Still, Chicago allowed RBNY 22 shots at home so not exactly the tightest defense in MLS.
Houston -.25 2u -103
other games of interest that I've not bet
Colorado +.75 - just not a team that loses many games and Cbus off a short week with several key injuries
KC under 2.25 - neither team scores much but the fear here is that KC starts putting away their opportunities.
Dallas -.75 - team is really rolling but CUSA are much improved in past month and not easy to beat like in June
SJ/LA over 2.25 - SJ defense in shambles and recent match ended 2-2. LA lucky to post a clean sheet over RBNY thanks to crossbars but SJ nowhwere near offensive fire power of RBNY.
DC/Phi over 2.5 - more a gut feel that two hopeless teams will open it up as 1 point does nothing for either squad.
Regular 22-17 +19.30
Parlay 0-4 -2.00
no stand-out bets so far but a few that are playable
Kansas City vs New England
- KC played fairly well in SJ though lost 1-0 despite having two Arnaud headers disallowed on set pieces, hitting the post, and Bunbury missing 3 glorious chances alone on keeper. But, that's what happens in this league when betting road teams and especially with KC who simply waste a ton of chances. Despite being the ONLY MLS TEAM with over 100 shots on goal (102) this season they've 2nd-to-last in goals scored which really highlights their futility in front of goal. Smith is creating a lot of chances for them but the forwards just aren't converting or they're marginally offsides when they do. The big reason for the bet here isn't just KC's fine current form but for New England playing 3rd match in a week in brutal heat (105 degrees will be heat index). Chicago, who are in awful form themselves, had New England on their heels all midweek match and got NE whistled for 5 yellow cards and 18 fouls (vs just 3 for Fire). I expect the speedy KC midfield to do everything in their power to make the Revs run and really feel the temperature, especially when the Revs are a team with a really short bench and playing match #6 in last 3 weeks. Revs defensively are very solid right now so I don't expect an easy game at all. It won't be a high scoring one but it will be really testy as neither team can afford to drop 3 points here. Both clubs are in a playoff dogfight sitting several points behind Toronto for last spot so it will be a match that between two teams in direct fight for playoff. I'll side with the home team who've been getting a ton of chances but are just not converting them. This year KC has put 26 more shots on goal than New England so I expect they will try to run the tired Revs ragged and eek out a home win.
KC -.25 2.5u -120
Houston vs Chicago
- Two hideous stats for Houston...1) have not beaten an MLS team since May 22 and 2) Have posted just 2 SOG in last 2 games. So, why bet them? Well, really similar reasoning to KC except for club form which is certainly not on Houston's side. 110 degrees will be the heat index for the start of this match which, like NE, will hurt a northern team playing 3rd match in a week. Also, like NE, the Fire were involved in Superliga and US Open Cup which means their schedule has been rough for the past 6 weeks playing 12th match in 54 days. The 3 big signings have brought improved play, for sure, but I don't trust the Fire a whole lot more than I trust the Dynamo. Just like with KC/NE both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to playoffs though Chicago have games in hand on the rest of the clubs. Absolutely a must-win for Houston who are in a freefall at 0-1-4 past 5 matches and winless in 4 in Houston. Injury situation is much improved with Davis, Onstad, and Cameron back in the lineup and if they press Chicago early to take advantage of the Fire's short week I expect a home win, finally. If, however, they let Chicago attack the flanks with their very speedy guys like Nyarko, Segares, Castillo, and Carr it could a very long night for the Dynamo. Still, Chicago allowed RBNY 22 shots at home so not exactly the tightest defense in MLS.
Houston -.25 2u -103
other games of interest that I've not bet
Colorado +.75 - just not a team that loses many games and Cbus off a short week with several key injuries
KC under 2.25 - neither team scores much but the fear here is that KC starts putting away their opportunities.
Dallas -.75 - team is really rolling but CUSA are much improved in past month and not easy to beat like in June
SJ/LA over 2.25 - SJ defense in shambles and recent match ended 2-2. LA lucky to post a clean sheet over RBNY thanks to crossbars but SJ nowhwere near offensive fire power of RBNY.
DC/Phi over 2.5 - more a gut feel that two hopeless teams will open it up as 1 point does nothing for either squad.
